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The Eye of the Storm: Inside the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Prepare for the 2024 Hurricane Season with AET

NOAA's GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023. NOAA's GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023.

As NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict an above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year, it's crucial for individuals, businesses, and communities to gear up for a season that promises to be both intense and challenging. With an 85% chance of an above-normal season and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, the urgency for preparedness cannot be overstated.


Understanding the Forecast

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, indicates a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with 8 to 13 of these potentially becoming hurricanes. Of these hurricanes, 4 to 7 may evolve into major hurricanes, categorized as 3, 4, or 5 with winds exceeding 111 mph. This forecast is backed by a 70% confidence level, underscoring the reliability of these predictions.


Why is the 2024 Hurricane Season Expected to Be So Active?

Several factors contribute to the anticipated increase in hurricane activity this year:

  • Near-Record Warm Ocean Temperatures: The Atlantic Ocean has been experiencing near-record warmth, providing ample heat energy to fuel storm development.

  • Transition to La Nina Conditions: La Nina tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics, a condition that favors hurricane formation.

  • Reduced Atlantic Trade Winds: Lighter trade winds allow storms to grow stronger without being disrupted.

  • Abundant Oceanic Heat Content: The tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have high heat content, further energizing potential storms.

  • Potential for an Above-Normal West African Monsoon: This can produce African easterly waves that often seed some of the most powerful Atlantic storms.


What Does This Mean for You?

 NOAA 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook - Season probability: 85% Above normal, 10% Near normal; 5% Below normal. Named storms: 7-25; Hurricanes: 8-13; Major hurricanes: 4-7. Be prepared: Visit hurricanes.gov and follow @NWS and @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter. May 2024. A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA's 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)

Hurricanes can be destructive, but they can also be more easily anticipated than other natural disasters. Though you have time with the busiest part of the season being August-October, it's important not to wait until the last minute to plan and prepare. Severe weather can strike at any moment, and being proactive can significantly impact how well individuals and communities can recover.


Take Action Today

What you should do now:

  • Visit www.floridadisaster.org to download the 2024 Florida Hurricane Guide

  • Create a disaster plan for both your home and business.

  • If you aren't sure where to start, Florida Disaster offers a great tool to help.

  • To receive emergency alerts and updates, download the FEMA app in the Apple or Google Store and visit https://www.fema.gov

  • Verify your insurance coverage.

  • Find a safe place to store all important documents.

  • If applicable, begin regularly testing your emergency generator to ensure it runs properly.

  • Do not let fuel sit in the generator or associated tank(s) for long periods of time without use. The # 1 reason emergency generators fail is due to bad fuel!


Stay Informed

As we hope for a quieter hurricane season, it's crucial to remember that a single storm can cause significant damage. Stay ahead and stay safe by connecting with us for the most up-to-date information and expert guidance throughout this hurricane season. Together, we can be prepared for whatever comes our way.

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