Prepare for an Intensely Active Period Ahead
As we enter the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, all indicators point to an exceptionally active period that could rank among the most intense on record. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recently updated its seasonal outlook, underscoring the urgency for individuals, communities, and businesses to be well-prepared for the threats posed by hurricanes, including damaging winds, storm surges, and inland flooding.
A Season of Early and Violent Activity
The season began with a fierce intensity that has set the tone for what lies ahead. Tropical Storm Alberto, which formed on June 17, unleashed nearly a foot of rain across Texas and New Mexico, leading to dangerous flash floods. However, it was Hurricane Beryl that truly marked the season's ferocity. On July 1, Beryl became the earliest category-5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. The storm caused catastrophic damage in several Caribbean islands and claimed the lives of approximately 20 people, with additional fatalities reported in Texas, Louisiana, and Vermont.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., highlighted the gravity of the situation, stating, "The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record. NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”
Updated Forecast: A Season of Heightened Risk
In their mid-season update, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has increased the expected number of named storms to 17-24, with 8-13 of these potentially becoming hurricanes, and 4-7 of these possibly developing into major hurricanes. For context, a typical Atlantic hurricane season usually sees 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three evolving into major hurricanes. The 2024 season now has a 90% probability of being above normal, with only a 10% chance of near-normal activity and virtually no chance of a below-normal season.
According to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support this heightened level of activity. "Hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin, and we’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season. Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Nina is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”
Preparing for the Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season
As the Atlantic basin enters the most dangerous period of the hurricane season, it’s crucial to stay informed and prepared. While NOAA’s Hurricane Season Outlook provides an overview of expected seasonal activity, it is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are dictated by short-term weather patterns, which can only be predicted a week in advance. Therefore, it's essential to remain vigilant and responsive to updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which offers tropical weather outlooks, storm track and intensity forecasts, and issues specific watches and warnings.
For the latest updates, visit the NHC website at hurricanes.gov or follow their updates on X (formerly Twitter) at @NHC_Atlantic.
Stay Informed, Stay Prepared, Stay Safe
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has already shown its potential for destruction, and with the peak still to come, it’s imperative to have a plan in place. Whether you're managing your business, securing your assets, or ensuring the safety of loved ones, preparation is key. Stay informed, stay prepared, and take proactive steps to safeguard against the looming threats this season may bring.
Stay safe, and let’s weather this season together.
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